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shares, deposits, bonds, what is most profitable? (4)

5) Siegel also provides that in the years 1941-1981 the bond market lost as much as 62% of its total value after deducting inflation. Actions have never experienced such a large scale loss of value due to inflation.

6) As noted above in this moment of time to invest in bonds against shares is the worst possible because the debt market is already in progress the biggest bull market of the century and a price bubble (I am talking about the U.S.). At the same time the stock market remains undervalued after the crash of 2008 and is a much better alternative investment than inflated to capacity with bonds. As estimated Siegel, 40 years ago was the perfect time to invest in bonds, because profitability was then 6.3%, roughly twice what it now. Meanwhile, at the bottom of the bear market in March 2009 SP500 scored 50% drop from its peak, and specifically the matter from the standpoint of historical regularity now waiting for him to climb the long-term capitalized annual rate of return equal to more than 10%. Bonds has never so much they gave not at any time.

7) at the end of Siegel notes that even after the bear market bottom in March 2009 the market has climbed by 30% up (when he wrote in April 2009, vide below), while the bonds at that time gave a negative rate return as a result of the sharp downturn in prices. April 30, 2009, when Siegel wrote his essay (in the net is in English, all the time here refers to him), a 40-year rate of return on shares SP500 index was measured as much as 15% higher than the 40-year rate of return on bonds in this the compared period. Broader stock market as measured at the time such as the Russell 2000 index, to provide even greater rate of return than the SP500. Of course, in April 2009, SP500 was much lower than it is now so out of the difference is only in favor of increased rates of return on the share of bonds.

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Stocks, bonds, deposits, what is most profitable? (3)

2) This is what gives Lynch is in line with what is given independently of it, John Ritchie in his "Study of Religion" (Warsaw 1997). On pages 9-10, he presented a very detailed account of the annual rates of return for government bonds, corporate bonds, treasury bills and the ordinary shares in the years 1926-1993. After averaging the results of rates of return for the whole period we have:

Corporate Bonds - 5.90%
Government Bonds - 5.36%
Treasury Bills - 3.74%
Ordinary shares - 12.34%

Throughout this period, shares gave twice the annual rate of return. The same was true after 1990 and 1993 (see Appendix at the end), or after the dates on which ends its calculations Lynch and Ritchie.

3) Jeremy Siegel in his book "Stocks for the Long Run" goes even further than Lynch and Ritchie, and compares the rate of return for stocks and bonds in the period from 1871 up to 2008. Its a very comprehensive comparison shows that throughout this period, shares gave a higher rate of return per annum by 3.2% than bonds. After deducting the inflation rate of return on shares in that period was equal to 6.2%, 3.2% on the bonds. Siegel estimates that over 30 years the purchasing power of the equity portfolio was 150% higher than the bonds in the 40-year period up to 3-fold higher. The model takes into account the arithmetic rate of return instead of a compound annual rate of return advantage over the bond share of 4.6% for the period indicated.

4) Siegel notes that in the period from December 1925 to January 1981, ie up by 55 years, the total rate of return on bonds was negative. Meanwhile, never been a very long period in which the rate of return on shares would also be negative. Even in one of the worst 30-year period for the shares of the rate of return was 2.6% above zero (slightly below the average rate of return on bonds), but it was not negative.

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Stocks, bonds, deposits, what is most profitable? (2)

In the long term compound interest has a huge strength because the amount of credited interest earnings are subject to interest rate further. You can see it best on the figures. 100 000 dollars invested in shares of the S & P500 index in 1926 zamieniłoby in 1990 at 22.5 million dollars while the same money invested in bonds at 1.6 zamieniłyby million dollars. These figures speak for themselves clearly enough.

In 1932, after the stock market crash on Wall Street, S & P500 index has fallen to just 5 points. At this time, this ratio is at about 1100 points, which still is a decent annual rate of return of 7.2% per year (5 x 1.072 ^ 77 = 1056), but also after the stock market crash, we're the biggest crisis since the 30 - these (or at least since World War II.) Index, however, firmly holding up much higher than in the 30's. As we see in the longer term, stock market, in principle, is continually growing and is still higher, despite the various sharp turns in the economic history of mankind. 100 000 dollars invested in the 30-share index of the S & P500 zamieniłoby today in a staggering 21 134 $ 816 (100 000 x 1.072 ^ 77 = 21 134 816).

also try a slightly different look at the approach to counting and let us for the last 30 years as a fairly representative for comparisons of rates of return from stocks and bonds. S & P500 over the past 30 years had an average annual rate of return of 8.3%. It is easy to count - its level in 1979 is equal to 100, so:

100 x (1 + 0.083) ^ 30 = 1093rd

1093 is roughly the current level of the index. So we have 8.3% average annual rate of return. Meanwhile, the average yield of 30-year U.S. bonds comes out in this period of less than 8.3%. From 1977 to 2007 we get an average yield 8.09% 30-year-old. S & P500 at that time gave a higher rate of return - more than 10%:

80 x (1 + 0.1) ^ 30 = 1395

Average yields on 30-year U.S. from 1977 to 2009 is 7.8%. S & P 500 gave at that time 8.5% gain, or more: 80 x (1 + .085) ^ 32 = 1088th

shares offer better long-term rate of return than bonds now I'll throw a few more arguments in favor of this as well as the fact that at the moment the moment to invest in shares, bonds against the worst possible way.

1) Peter Lynch in "Beat the Stock Exchange," compiled by Ibbotson Yearbook (p. 26) return on long-term government bonds, long-term corporate bonds, treasury bills, shares of small companies and share with the SP500 in the ten-day intervals. Treasury bills will omit the brackets I am seeing negative returns, so it looks like this:

Decade 1920-1930:

Corporate Bonds - 5.2%
Government Bonds - 5.0%
shares of small companies - (-4.5 %)
SP500 - 19.2%.

Decade 1930-1940:

Corporate Bonds - 6.9%
Government Bonds - 4.9% of the shares of small companies

SP500 -1.4 - 0.0%

Decade 1940-1950:

Corporate Bonds - 2.7%
Government Bonds - 3.2%
shares of small companies - 20.7%
SP500 - 9.2%

Decade 1950-1960:

Corporate Bonds - 1.0% Government Bonds
- ( -0.1%)
shares of small companies -
SP500 16.9% - 19.4%

Decade 1960-1970:

Corporate Bonds - 1.7%
Government Bonds - 1.4%
Shares Small Business - 15.5%
SP500 - 7.8%

Decade 1970-1980:

Corporate Bonds - 6.2%
Government Bonds - 5.5%
shares of small companies - 11.5%
SP500 - 5.9%

Decade 1980-1990:

Corporate Bonds - 13.0%
Government Bonds - 12.6%
shares of small companies -
SP500 15.8% - 17.5%

As can be seen only once pierced bonds share - in the 30 -those during the Great Depression. In the 70's, corporate bonds were better than the SP500 but the share of small firms were better than being compared both types of bonds, so in this decade, we have a tie. In other decades, up to 5 win shares. As Lynch says, 100 000 dollars invested in government bonds during the period as listed in the above statement would give U.S. $ 1.6 million, while the same U.S. $ 100 000 invested in the SP500 would provide up to U.S. $ 22.5 million.

CDN